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Economic Forecast

I hope things are going well.  I was in Toronto last week attending seminars and information sessions from the major insurance and fund companies.  Topics included economic forecasts, understanding millennials, future trends predicted by a think tank, tax changes and tax strategies, social media and entrepreneurship.

There was a talk by the chief economist for IA Clarington.  What sets Clement Gignac apart from other chief economists, is that he runs 6 billion of funds directly, and therefore has accountability for the calls and decisions he makes.  I took notes which include –

  • India is about to outpace China for GDP growth. They had 12% of GDP in 2016, the USA had 16%, and 35% for China.  The measurements from China have to be viewed with caution as there is little third party verification of their numbers
  • For the developed countries there is lower productivity growth, lower population growth, lower potential GDP growth and low interest rates for longer.
  • Currently more than 1/3 of sovereign bonds have negative interest rates and 75% of these bonds are less than 1%.

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